E-Commerce Finance in the
Knowledge Economy:
Issues, Macroeconomic Determinants and Public Policies
Abstract
Electronic commerce is a new phenomenon in the financial markets. Due to
the nascent development of e-commerce, we hypothesise that new economic
issues regarding e-commerce are emerging that have wide macroeconomics and
e-commerce stock valuation implications and therefore public policy
relevance. The growth of the e-commerce sector is largely driven by the
emergence of the knowledge economy. This paper develops a new model (the
AEMM model) for the estimation of e-commerce stock valuation specifying
macroeconomic factors. The model consists of several local and
international factors that influence a particular financial market,
namely, the Australian financial market. The factor identification process
in this study seeks to ensure that equity investments in the e-commerce
sector will maximise financial return when these variables are included in
the risk analysis. This paper adopts an important and recent approach to
econometric specification, estimation and testing in relation to
e-commerce stock valuation. The AEMM model along with some other
quantitative methods is used to address other financial issues in the
e-commerce sector. Econometric analyses including stationarity tests,
cointegration modelling, volatility and predictability analyses and
efficient market hypothesis checks are performed. Using the model,
forecasts can be made with the appropriate variable values as well. Since
the macroeconomic pervasive factors are tested to be significant for
e-commerce sector financial issues, their characteristics permeate beyond
sectorial boundary and have economy- and global-wide/Asian regional
implications and inferences. The empirical findings of this Australian
study and their implications for public policies for Asia (including
India) are stated.