Constant Maturity Yield Curve Estimation for India
Abstract
It is a widespread practice among central banks over the world to
report the base interest rates of the economy in terms of constant
maturity yield curves for default risk free government securities.
The Indian debt market being very thin and relatively less mature,
so far there was no published information on constant maturity
yields for the economy, in this paper, we have sought to fill this
void, by refining our already existing yield curve to reflect constant
maturity yields in place of yields for wide maturity bands. In order to deal with
the existing problem of low frequency of trades and the resulting paucity
of data while estimating the constant maturity yields, instead of maturity
points we specify maturity "windows". These windows are the narrowest
possible ones being chosen on considerations of precision as well as
representation of a sizable number of traded securities. A comparison with
our former yield curve shows that we have indeed achieved in terms of
precision in this attempt. A rigorous comparison with the existing zero-coupon
yield estimates published by the National Stock Exchange by testing two hypotheses -
one of the equality of monthly yields based on the two methods and another of
the cointegration of the two series shows that the constant maturity yields
adequately reflect the movements of the term-structure of interest rates of the
Indian economy though there remains significant difference in the level of monthly
yields. Testing the same two hypotheses for yields of money market instruments,
which are also zero-coupon securities, we come up with a striking result that
the difference between the constant maturity and zero-coupon yields increase
alarmingly. The shape of the zero-coupon yield curve is inverted at the very short
end while constant maturity yield curves exhibit no such trend. Such inverted
yield curves is not a regular feature of the Indian economy and shows the
inability of the zero-coupon yield estimates to reflect the realised yields
at the short end. It is concluded
that given the current market scenario the estimated constant
maturity yield curves can well represent the short, medium and long-term
interest rates for the Indian economy.
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